A Embaixada da Índia em Brasília, com o intuito de aumentar o engajamento em assuntos relacionados à Índia e na ocasião do 74º Dia da Independência, celebrado em 15 de agosto, promoveu eventos online comemorativos. A proposta envolveu dois concursos, sendo um de artigos com temas que abordassem a Índia como uma potência emergente ou a respeito da trajetória de desenvolvimento dos 74 anos da Índia independente, e o outro um quizz com perguntas sobre história e cultura indianas.
Temos o orgulho de anunciar que Fernanda Guimarães, Analista da Câmara de Comércio Índia Brasil, teve seu artigo "India: Emerging Power in the Global Order" selecionado em terceiro lugar no concurso. O artigo pode ser acessado na íntegra abaixo. Parabéns, Fernanda!
"India: Emerging Power in the Global Order
Fernanda Alessandra Guimarães Silva
India is considered one of the most promising developing nations in the current global order. The present essay aims to analyze the current condition of emerging power demonstrated by India. In this regard, in the first section, a theoretical discussion will be presented in order to conceptualize the term "emerging power" and illustrate how India can fit into this concept, considering the country’s contributions to the current international dynamic. In the next section, an appreciation of India's economic attributes will be presented, with an analysis of how India's development demonstrates that the nation is an emerging power. In this sense, the analytical cut selected for the present essay is based on Indian economic performance since the last decades, and its contribution for global value chains. Finally, the conclusions that can be inferred from this discussion will be presented, resulting in the finding that India is an emerging power in the current global order.
2. The characterization of India as an emerging power
India's performance in several aspects of its international insertion, especially considering its economy, allowed its characterization as an emerging power in the current global order. In this sense, India can be described as a “rising power”, implicating transformations with the aim of reaching greater presence in the dynamics of the international system (TANK, 2012).
The end of the Cold War in the 1990s decade raised the debate regarding the new arrangement of the distribution of power in the international system. The decline of the bipolar global order in which there were only two poles of power vying for global hegemony gave rise to multiple power poles, presenting different levels of power and interacting with each other under an innovative dynamic in this unprecedented global order. In this sense, even though it is possible to observe the existence of concentration of power in specific poles, the reformulation of economic and geopolitical relations between nations demonstrated the possibility of increased participation of new poles that demonstrate power in a medium magnitude, located in the peripheral spaces in terms of world production and economic flows. The beginning of the 2000s decade allowed the dissemination of the classification of “emerging power” as interchangeable with “rising power”, considering the result of the combination of economic, political and social aspects (PAES et. al, 2016).
Thus, bearing in mind the academic conceptualization used to describe emerging powers, it is possible to infer that India has aspects necessary to be classified into this category at the current dynamics of the international system. Therefore, India is an emerging power as it demonstrates “perspectives of relevant economic growth in the near future and greater share of economic flows”. Also, India “claims for greater recognition in global governance, whether through reformist or revisionist strategies, possessing a relevant level of regional military and economic primacy”. In addition, it is possible to note India as an emerging power regarding its diplomatic behaviour and external politics, which “aim to reform or review the international order”, in the sense that is “ historically associated with a non-identity belonging to the status quo of this international order” (PAES et. al, 2016, pg 9).
India, even though characterized by the broader scope of emerging power, is still able to stand out from other States that also constitute the global periphery and semi-periphery. In this sense, India is a “great peripheral country”, that is, “non-developed country, with large population and large continuous, non-inhospitable territory, reasonably amenable to economic exploitation”, consequently, India can exploit its potential “to promote greater capital accumulation, scientific and technological development, production and productivity, conventional and unconventional military capacity, broad and diversified competitiveness at the international level, with less vulnerability to external shocks and pressures” (GUIMARÃES, 1998).
Thus, India demonstrates a complex apparatus that allows its classification into the category of emerging power in the current international system dynamics. India demonstrates high annual growth rates, favorable economic indices, the high flow of FDI, the great trade opening and the progress towards greater development achieved through government initiatives and promising technological achievements in various sectors and areas.
3. Indian economy and its emerging attributes
The previous section discussed the conceptualization of rising or emerging power and how India fits within this theoretical framework. In this section, will be presented data on the Indian economy, with aim to illustrate the way in which the Indian nation seeks to insert itself into the dynamics of the international system as a relevant actor.
India has shown, since the 1990s decade, high rates of economic growth of approximately 6% per year, according to data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The 2003-2010 period registered the peak of economic growth rates, at 8.3% per year. Subsequently, in the 2011-2016 period, growth decelerated, showing a rate of 6.8% per year. The 2016-2018 period, finally, kept the average similar to the previous one, presenting a 6.6% growth rate per year, according to the Institute of Studies for Industrial Development (2018) and Trading Economics (2018) .
The high growth potential exhibited historically since the 1990s decade by the Indian economy made possible for the country to become highly attractive for international investment and foreign trade, especially nowadays. One of the main strategies for India's economic growth is internationalization, considering that it strengthens its relations with important partners in trade and financial aspects. Currently, India is one of the largest destinations for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) among emerging economies, receiving an average of US $ 25 billion per year throughout the 2000s. Thus, the opening rate of the Indian economy has reached a level of 40% since 2013, representing an elevated level for international standards, especially among developing countries (BANIK et. al, 2014).
Therefore, the tendency of international insertion in economic and financial aspects indicates a broader participation of India within global value chains. According to the World Bank, this model of development in which there is participation at key phases of global value chains generates economic growth by manufacturing higher value-added tasks and products, including more advanced technologies and know-how and the country’s services and production. Thus, India’s participation in global value chains provide the opportunity to bypass its development process. As a result, the economic scenario of India nowadays illustrates a significant boost in competitiveness in global parameters, originated from the combination of competitive costs of production allied to high technology applied to industrial activity.
In addition to the discussion of participation at global value chains, it is possible to mention that India is known as one of the main technology hubs in the world. Indian performance in the IT & BPM sector, and other activities that require advanced technology and added-value production, were responsible for the attraction of a significant amount of investment in the course of Indian development trajectory. The amount of FDI flow oriented by computer software and hardware sector in India is worth US$ 44.91 billion, between the period of 2000 to 2020, as per the data released by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT). The total export revenue for the IT industry is expected to grow more than 8% in the fiscal year of 2020. The IT & BPM sector accounts for the largest share in Indian services exports at the present time, at 45% of the total. Also, about 200 Indian IT companies are present in more than 80 countries around the world, demonstrating Indian participation in global value chains in this specific sector is of great relevance for the global production of advanced technology goods. In this regard, Indian companies in the IT & BPM sector, along with Universities and research institutes are working on innovative ideas, combining research and development resources in order to create differentiated offerings that will be incorporated to the Indian economic performance (INDIA BRAND AND EQUITY FOUNDATION, 2020). Therefore, Indian technology proeminence plays an important and strategic role for the country’s international insertion as one of the most relevant emerging powers in the current global order.
The Indian Government is also responsible for a series of measures and activities that promote economic development and incentive domestic modern production. It is possible to mention, for example, the launching of a program called “Make in India” in 2014, with the primary objective of transforming the country into a production center with global prominence, stimulating the activity of domestic and multinational companies within the Indian economy. The initiative aimed to increase the contribution of the manufacturing sector to 25% of the Gross Domestic Product by 2020, which represented an increase of 16% in relation to the indicators detected in the year of launch of the initiative in question. Thus, since its implementation, the Make in India program has encouraged the realization of FDI, so that FDI flows between 2014 and 2016 increased by 55%. Also, a jurisdictional apparatus for intellectual property rights was created, consequently, India was raised to the level of the 57th most innovative country in the world. Finally, reforms and improvements in the country's productive infrastructure were promoted and the current industrial sector development process was intensified.
The end of the Cold War in the 1990s allowed the creation of a new order in the international system, marked by multipolarity, in which there are several poles of power that interact under a dynamic in the international system. Amid this new dynamic, there are rising or emerging powers, constituted by countries that present increasing production and investment rates that allow them to receive identification as a developing economy. In addition, the emerging powers also have a recognizable relevance to regional power dynamics, gradually increasing their insertion in sensitive subjects of the international dynamics related to their interests.
In this sense, India can be considered an emerging power in the current context of the international system. Bearing in mind an analysis with focus on economic aspects, the country has demonstrated favorable GDP growth rates since the 1990s decade, a notable level of FDI that surpasses 40% of opening rate and great participation at global chain values in various sectors. In addition, the Indian Government carries out initiatives and programs, such as Make in India, that encourage productive modernization, technological advancement and industrial activity, in order to leverage the Indian economy with a focus on development goals.
Thus, India presents the aspects that can conceptualize the country in the category of emerging power. Over the decades, India managed to increase its international insertion until culminating in the situation that is currently observed, being an extremely relevant actor for International Relations. It is increasingly expected that the Indian nation will perform well in global dynamics in the long run.
BANIK, Arindan; PADOVANI, Fernando. Índia em transformação: o novo crescimento econômico e as perspectivas pós-crise. Revista de Sociologia e Política, v.22, n.50, 2014 <http://www.scielo.br/pdf/rsocp/v22n50/06.pdf>
GUIMARÃES, Samuel. Desafios e Dilemas dos Grandes Países Periféricos: Brasil e Índia. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, v.41, n.1, Brasília, Jan/Jun 1998. <http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-73291998000100006&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=pt>
INDIA BRAND AND EQUITY FOUNDATION. IT&BPM Industry in India. 2020 <<https://www.ibef.org/industry/information-technology-india.aspx>
INSTITUTO DE ESTUDOS PARA O DESENVOLVIMENTO INDUSTRIAL. O Programa Make in India e outras Iniciativas do Governo Indiano, 2018: <https://iedi.org.br/cartas/carta_iedi_n_849.html>
MAKE IN INDIA.The vision, new processes, sectors, infrastructure and mindset, 2017 <http://www.makeinindia.com/article/-/v/make-in-india-reason-vision-for-the-initiative>
PAES, Lucas de Oliveira; CUNHA, André Moreira; FONSECA, Pedro Cezar Dutra. The Formation of the Concept of Emerging Power in International Relations. Rev. Econ. Polit. vol.36 no.1 São Paulo Jan./Mar. 2016 <https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572016000100046&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en>
TANK, Pinar. Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre. NOREF Policy Brief. The Concept of “Rising Powers”. June 2012. <https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/146521/aa7c23bf5887ab060f1af737a39a000a.pdf>
TRADING ECONOMICS. India GDP, 2018: <https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annual>
WORLD BANK. Global Value Chains. <https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/global-value-chains>